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This article is part of our Madden series.
DraftKings has drastically expanded its esports competitions in recent days, so much so that the inevitable natural conclusion of this line would be to incorporate simulated sports games such as Madden 20.
On DraftKings, you get bonus points for 5+ shots or 3+ blocked shots so someone like Alex Ovechkin who is a volume shooter tends to be a better play there just because he can rack up additional. The cashless way to play! Plus: fund, withdrawal, spend and transfer! Available when using your favorite sportsbook app. We create new consumer experiences and disrupt the traditional cash-based ecosystem model. Play+ is an FDIC insured reloadable.
The good news is that the scoring is the exact same as traditional NFL games, and with that, the fantasy competition is the same as DraftKings' regular showdown offerings, with users required to select a lineup of five flex players plus a captain, who earns 1.5 times the points of others (that being said, the captain's salary is also 1.5 times higher). All of this should be incredibly familiar to DFS veterans, but that's about where the similarities end. In this article, we'll run through a handful of key figures to factor in when putting together your Madden 20 simulation lineups.
Attributes referenced in this article can be found on the Madden 20 NFL Player Ratings Database; just search for the respective player search feature.
Speed Kills, or Does It?
Anyone who has ever played Madden knows that speed is king. Guys like John Ross, Jakeem Grant or Corey Grant might not be relevant names in the DFS circles, but they are hugely impactful in Madden. Unfortunately, that logic doesn't stretch all the way to these Madden 20 simulations, for a handful of reasons.
First off, each team has designated depth charts which the CPU rarely strays from. Whereas a bad game from David Johnson in real life might have Cardinals head coach Cliff Kingsbury gravitate towards more second-half carries for Kenyan Drake, the CPU will make no such reactionary changes.
If the speedy player is unable to see the field based on the CPU's depth chart alignment, they won't be able to take advantage of the statistical mismatch.
That's made worse by the fact each game consists of six-minute quarters with accelerated clock turned on, meaning almost every play will start with somewhere between 12-15 seconds left in the play clock. As a result, each team will maybe only have three drives to work with in each half, and that's likely being generous. Players locked into Madden-schemed time shares will suffer dramatically from this. And there are …. a lot of situations like that. In fact, Madden 20's scheme-based depth chart allows for a surprisingly realistic depiction of real-life situations. Tarik Cohen and James White inserted into passing downs? Check. Julian Edelman operating as a strict slot receiver despite being a higher overall player than Phillip Dorsett or N'Keal Harry? Count on it.
Alright, back to the speed statistic. We can predict when/if a speed player will get on the field, but we can't predict whether the CPU will call a designated deep pass for a speedy player, so it's likely more important to consider the matchups the speed player might face equal to the opportunities they'll have to break free in a given game.
Take Curtis Samuel, for example. The third-year wideout sits at 95 speed, and at least this year (thanks Robby Anderson), should be in a prominent spot on the depth chart to 'have' opportunities for deep throws. That matters more if he faces say, Buccaneers cornerback Carlton Davis, who is simply drastically slower (88 speed) than his likely matchup. But that speed advantage is rendered useless against Falcons cornerback Kendall Sheffield, who sports 93 speed.
In short, speed matters to the extent that slower players normally get shut down by faster players. Unless there's an extreme inverse of that idea, a faster player doesn't have a significant advantage over someone who is only slightly slower.
Awareness and Play Recognition Above All Else
Unlike speed, the awareness stat (listed as AWR) and play recognition stat (PRC) are hugely important on the offensive/defensive matchups. Because this simulation is being played on arcade mode, assume every quarterback will make the 'proper' read, i.e., one that will generate yards. Arcade mode also means that just about every catch will be made regardless of the coverage. However, the CPU QB will attempt fewer passes in situations it deems 'less favorable' than other options. Awareness and play recognition are the two primary statistics when determining how a defender plays in coverage. You can assume higher overall defenders will have high awareness and play recognition – in fact it's one of the only statistics Madden developers use to boost a player's overall level.
Awareness and play recognition from an offensive prospect only matter for the quarterback. A low awareness quarterback might take less time to process the 'favorable' choice, losing opportunities for potential positive yardage. They'll also be prone to taking more sacks, which leads me into the final point of strategical advice.
Don't Fade Defenses or Kickers
We already discussed how these games will generally be low scoring. There's simply a finite number of opportunities for the CPU teams to score; a number that reduces when you factor in Madden's horrible coding in relation to sound, red zone strategy.
It's probably not wise to use kickers or defense in the captain spot, but touchdowns will be at a premium in these contests, whereas field goals and sacks will be easy points at a discounted price. About the only strategy I can confidently recommend in a Madden 20 simulation is that mistakes, mess ups and ineptitude will occur, all of which would favor rostering some combinations of defenses and kickers.
This article is part of our DraftKings PGA series.
SENTRY TOURNAMENT OF CHAMPIONS
Purse: $6.7M
Winner's Share: $1.34M
FedEx Cup Points: 500 to the Winner
Location: Lahaina, Maui, Hawaii
Course: Plantation Course at Kapalua
Yardage: 7,596
Par: 73
2020 champion: Justin Thomas
Tournament Preview
PGA play resumes this week with the Tournament of Champions (Plus Other Guys).
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For the first and perhaps only time, non-winners were invited to Kapalua, giving the annual lid-lifter its largest and strongest field ever, one that includes eight of the top 10 golfers in the OWGR. PGA Tour officials feared the truncated 2020 calendar would leave an already-small field a bit too small, so they granted exemptions to anyone who reached the Tour Championship. It turns out they were right, as only 28 different golfers won tournaments in 2020. Seventeen more participants were added via East Lake for a total of 45. No. 4-ranked Rory McIlroy and No. 10 Tyrrell Hatton opted not to play, and Jim Herman tested positive for COVID-19 last week, leaving the field at 42 – eight more participants than last year.
Two-time winner Dustin Johnson, Jon Rahm, defending champion Justin Thomas and Bryson DeChambeau headline the field. There are seven TOC first-timers, plus some guys not normally in attendance so early in the year, such as Adam Scott and Sergio Garcia, who will tee it up for the first time since 2014 and 2006, respectively. It's unclear why they decided to show up. Perhaps they are concerned that the schedule will be interrupted again, or maybe it's because the Tour is already more than a quarter of the way through its 2020-21 schedule. Sometimes it's hard to remember that the season is simply continuing at Kapalua, as 12 tournaments were already played during the longest fall season ever. A lot of points have already been doled out. 34 tournaments – not including alternate-field events and the Olympics in late July – remain.
First-timers don't usually excel and rarely contend at Kapalua, thanks largely to the enormous and undulating greens. On the other hand, with the course undergoing numerous changes the past couple years, the playing field could be leveled a bit. While Kapalua was annually one of the easiest courses on the calendar, it was middle-of-the-pack last year. Why? Well there is definitely one reason and maybe two. After the 2019 tournament there was a substantial renovation, maybe as big a makeover as any PGA Tour course has seen in just one year. In a nutshell, course representatives wanted to make it more challenging. Original architects Bill Coore and Ben Crenshaw were brought back, and no stone was left unturned. Tee boxes were moved, bunkers were reworked, holes were re-grassed and the greens were changed. It's still a bomber's paradise, but Coore and Crenshaw tried to add weight to the second shot, as golfers are now forced to play the angles more with their drives. So, last year, the Plantation Course ranked 20th hardest out of 41 tracks, and Thomas' winning score in a three-way playoff with former champs Xander Schauffele and Patrick Reed was only 278 – 14-under par. That was a whopping nine shots below Schauffele's winning score in 2019. It was particularly windy over the final three rounds, though, so it's hard to know how much was the redesign and how much was the weather.
The reconfigured course checks in at nearly 7,600 yards, but as we know, it plays far shorter as a par-73 and with massive elevation changes buoying distances. We'll surely see some 400-yard drives again. Who could forget Johnson's 430-yarder on No. 12 three years ago that nearly resulted in mind-boggling hole-in-one on a par-4? Still, we have seen shorter hitters excel, with Jordan Spieth (2016), Zach Johnson (2014) and Steve Stricker (2012) taking home titles. In fact, golfers will absolutely need to bring their short-game acumen to succeed this week, as scrambling and putting have historically been critical. The bermudagrass greens average a whopping 8,700 square feet and run about 10-10.5 on the Stimpmeter. There are 93 bunkers. And even though they're playing on an island, there is absolutely no water in play.
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Weather-wise, well, it's Hawaii, so it will be beautiful. Specifically, highs will be in the low 80s with no rain. Most importantly, the wind is not expected to be nearly as fierce as it was last year, blowing in the low double digits (10-15 mph) all four days.
A un non-golf-related factoid from the Golf Course Superintendents: 'The leeward waters of Maui have the densest humpback whale population in the world during the winter months.'
Key Stats to Winning at Kapalua
The most important indicators every week are current form and course history. 'Key Stats' follow in importance.
• Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee
• Strokes Gained: Putting
• Strokes Gained: Approach/Greens in Regulation
• Strokes Gained: Around-the-Green/Scrambling
Past Champions
2020 - Justin Thomas
2019 - Xander Schauffele
2018 - Dustin Johnson
2017 - Justin Thomas
2016 - Jordan Spieth
2015 - Patrick Reed
2014 - Zach Johnson
2013 - Dustin Johnson
2012 - Steve Stricker
2011 - Jonathan Byrd
Champion's Profile
What we saw last year was evidence that there's more than one way to win at Kapalua. Sure, the longer hitters have a distinct advantage. But let's look at the three guys in the playoff. Thomas and Schauffele excelled tee-to-green and Reed displayed his usual short-game mastery. Specifically, Schauffele ranked first in all of SG: Off-the-Tee, SG: Around-the-Green and greens in regulation and was fourth in SG: Approach. Thomas was second in SG: Approach and proximity to the hole and third in GIR. Reed ranked first in putting and second in SG: Around-the-Green, making an astounding 400-plus feet of putts during the week. Reed is the perfect example of being able to solve Kapalua by negotiating all the nuances around and on the expansive greens. Because of all the challenges on the putting surfaces, placement on approach shots is critical. That's why course knowledge is viewed with such importance here. No TOC rookie has won since Daniel Chopra claimed victory in 2008. Still, with such a small field and no cut, it's certainly possible a first-timer could secure a high finish, as Jon Rahm did three years ago and Joaquin Niemann did last year. The fairways are some 50-60 yards wide, roughly double what the golfers see most of the year, so it's still bombs away ,and the past four winners were long hitters.
DRAFTKINGS VALUE PICKS
Based on Standard $50K Salary Cap
Tier 1 Values
Justin Thomas - $10,700 (Winning odds at golfodds.com: 8-1)
Bypassing the best player in the world in Dustin Johnson at a track where he's won twice might not seem like a rational move, even when turning to another two-time TOC champion in Thomas. But in a 42-man field we're limiting ourselves to two golfers in each tier. While DJ was on a level by himself in the fall, Thomas was pretty darn good in his own right, finishing no worse than 12th in any of his five fall starts and finishing solo fourth at the Masters. It's not like we don't like Johnson; we just like two guys a bit more. If that sounds like we're actually picking three guys in this tier...um...no comment.
Xander Schauffele - $10,000 (10-1)
Schauffele won this tournament two years ago and hasn't won anywhere since. That's pretty remarkable. However, he came as close as possible last year, losing in a playoff to Thomas. Schauffele was slowed after contracting COVID-19 in mid-December, but he indicated he's back at full strength.
Tier 2 Values
Patrick Reed - $9,600 (16-1)
Reed won here in 2015 and has finished second twice since, including last year. It's all because of his exceptional short game. Reed is vastly improved in other areas, though, and he finished last season ranked 42nd in Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee – by far the best mark of his career.
Cameron Smith - $8,400 (40-1)
Smith qualified for his second TOC by winning last year's Sony Open just one week after the last edition of this event. He didn't have another top-10 all season but still reached the Tour Championship. He did end 2020 with a flourish, recording two top-10s – including a co-runner-up at the Masters – in the fall.
Tier 3 Values
Adam Scott - $8,100 (50-1)
It was a bit of a surprise to see the Riviera champion take his place at Kapalua for the first time since 2014, when he tied for sixth. Now 40, Scott still finds himself among the longest hitters. To go along with a better-than-perceived putting game, he also ranked in the top-10 in Strokes Gained: Around-the-Green the past two seasons.
Billy Horschel - $7,600 (80-1)
Horschel was a bit of an enigma last season. He ranked top-40 in Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee and top-30 in SG: Putting yet truly contended only once, when he finished runner-up at the Wyndham Championship. But he made it to the Tour Championship, and here he is. Horschel has had two quality finishes in four visits to the Plantation course, tying for 11th in 2018 and for sixth in 2014.
Long-Shot Values
Ryan Palmer - $7,000 (100-1)
At age 44, Palmer had a quietly-terrific season that carried him all the way to East Lake. He had 11 top-25s in 19 starts, including runner-up at the Memorial and a T8 at The Northern Trust. At No. 30 in the OWGR, he's not far off his personal best of 23rd. Palmer is far from the best putter, but he finished out 2020 on a pretty good run. He tied for 17th at Kapalua last year in his first visit since 2011.
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Brian Gay - $6,100 (300-1)
There are only 42 guys in the field. Everyone makes the cut. Let's take a flyer on a guy at a bargain-basement price who could be one of the best putters this week. Gay is at a severe disadvantage off the tee, but he's played this track several times and knows the greens. He last appeared here in 2014 and tied for 13th.